北京市第三方物流竞争力的现状及对策分析

第三方物流经历了二十多年的发展历程,已经逐渐成为物流体系的核心。第三方物流服务商运用先进的信息技术和管理来优化配送系统,提高物流服务水平和竞争力。随着信息技术的发展以及物流相关行业经济性管制的放松,这都进一步为第三方物流提供了广阔的发展空间。本文主要分析北京市第三方物流发展中存在的问题,并提出通过建立物流联盟,来降低企业交易费用,发挥资源互补优势,增强供应链竞争力,提高物流服务水平。     

组织惯例更新触发因素与影响效应——基于先动型市场导向和可持续竞争优势视角

组织惯例更新是企业进行组织优化和迭代以适应外部动态环境的重要途径，基于组织学习理论和动态能力理论，构建先动型市场导向—组织学习—组织惯例更新—动态能力—可持续竞争优势研究框架，探讨组织惯例更新触发因素与影响效应。通过对191家科技型企业进行问卷调研发现：①先动型市场导向显著正向影响组织惯例更新，组织学习在先动型市场导向与组织惯例更新之间起部分中介作用；②组织惯例更新显著正向影响企业可持续竞争优势，动态能力在组织惯例更新与可持续竞争优势之间发挥完全中介作用。研究结论有助于厘清组织惯例更新触发因素、丰富组织惯例更新结果研究，并对企业建立可持续竞争优势具有一定指导意义。     

Taking two to tango: A comparative nationalism view of cross-border acquisitions

Nationalism is an important yet underexplored issue in the international business strategy literature. As a new reality, the resurgence and augmentation of nationalism in recent decades has brought disruption effects that challenge traditional arguments on the international expansion of multinational enterprises (MNEs). We suggest that nationalism is not merely about one’s own national interest but should be extended to consider the mutual forces from home and host countries in international business (IB) research. This study proposes a comparative nationalism view to investigate the impacts of various types of intercountry nationalism on MNEs’ expansion through cross-border acquisitions. Through scenario analysis, the MNEs’ expansion trajectories are characterized by different degrees of comparative nationalism, including incremental expansion, deceleration, leapfrogging, and divestment strategies. Our findings and propositions create a new vision for cross-border research considering the interacting effect of national sentiments. We also discuss promising future research agendas enabling further exploration of this topic.     

多元化集团中的母合优势分析

以2002～2006年实施多元化战略的集团公司为研究对象,利用分层线性模型的实证检验结果表明:母公司显著地影响了上市子公司的经营绩效,反映了母公司对多元化战略实施的重要作用.但通过进一步分析发现,对于实施非相关多元化战略的集团公司而言,母公司对子公司的干预更具有价值性,结果多元化集团中的母合优势分析支持了"母合优势"理论;而对于实施相关多元化战略的集团公司而言,母公司的干预会损害子公司的经营绩效.     

中国经济双循环的比较优势分析

研究目标:考察中国经济双循环的比较优势。研究方法:构建基于贸易增加值口径的比较优势指数并结合核密度估计和马尔可夫链进行分析。研究发现:第一，尽管中国省际调出的比较优势呈上升趋势，且在2017年首次突破了1,但中国经济内循环的比较优势仍然不强。第二，尽管中国出口的比较优势呈上升趋势，但始终未突破1,这说明中国经济在外循环中并不具有比较优势。第三，中国各省份在内循环中的比较优势，强于在外循环中的比较优势；中国各部门在内循环与外循环中的比较优势则基本持平。研究创新:首次构建了增加值口径的省际调出显示性比较优势指数，将国内大循环和国际大循环纳入统一的分析框架。研究价值:为加快形成以国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局提供理论依据。     

Dominant modes of economic coordination and varieties of firm internationalization support

International Business research has focused attention on the role of the home country in firm internationalization. While this has produced insights as to how home countries condition firm internationalization, significant gaps remain. We focus on two. First, research on how and why countries differ in their internationalization support is limited. Second, research on how countries differ in the extension of their internationalization support into host countries is scant. Addressing these gaps, we develop a conceptual paper and put forward nine propositions. We theorize how differences in the dominant mode of economic coordination in home countries – in market-, business-, and state-led economies – relate to variation in their internationalization support. Our framework is relevant to developed and emerging economies.     

Forecasting expected shortfall: Should we use a multivariate model for stock market factors?

Is univariate or multivariate modeling more effective when forecasting the market risk of stock portfolios? We examine this question in the context of forecasting the one-week-ahead expected shortfall of a stock portfolio based on its exposure to the Fama–French and momentum factors. Applying extensive tests and comparisons, we find that in most cases there are no statistically significant differences between the forecasting accuracy of the two approaches. This result suggests that univariate models, which are more parsimonious and simpler to implement than multivariate factor-based models, can be used to forecast the downside risk of equity portfolios without losses in precision.     

企业创新倾向、吸收能力与跨界技术并购创新绩效—— 一项模糊集定性比较分析

在吸收理论的基础上，结合行业技术环境和企业双元创新倾向，提出跨界技术并购企业创新绩效实现机制的整合性分析框架，并使用fsQCA对107个上市公司跨界技术并购案例进行构型研究。结果发现，在高创新绩效构型中，主并企业创新倾向与吸收能力不同维度间存在差异化匹配关系；企业潜在吸收能力与现实吸收能力间具有一定的替代关系，技术基础广度和吸收转化投入强度对于创新绩效提高相对重要；丰富的外部技术资源更有助于创新绩效提升。研究结论拓展了吸收能力理论，丰富了跨界技术并购领域实证证据，可为不同特征企业制定跨界技术并购决策提供参考依据。     

Aggregating qualitative district-level campaign assessments to forecast election results: Evidence from Japan

The poll aggregation is conducted in the USA and European democracies for electoral forecasting. However, this has not been the case in Japan because the news media report on electoral campaigns with qualitative assessments rather than poll numbers, although these assessments are based on extensive polling. Our study developed an approach to aggregate qualitative district-level election campaign coverage in Japan, applied the method to forecast the outcomes of the 2017 general election for Japan’s Lower House of the National Diet, and assessed the accuracy of the forecast against the actual results. We integrated the qualitative assessments by using the item response theory, which effectively predicted the electoral results. The method proposed in this paper can be applied to aggregate qualitative assessments by experts in other countries, such as the Cook Political Report in the USA. This would improve the accuracy of election forecasting when combined with existing approaches.     

Varieties of institutional systems,the belt-road initiative,and the patterned investment flows

Although the Belt-Road initiative (BRI), as a ‘model’ government initiative, has attracted great attention from both academia and industry, one central question related to the location choice of Chinese investment remains under-researched. Our study is motivated to reveal how institutional configurations of BRI participant countries that lead to a high volume of Chinese outward investment vary with the BRI. Utilizing the varieties of institutional systems (VIS) framework, we compare two Waves (2008–2013 and 2014–2019) of Chinese outward investment flows into 120 BRI participant countries. Using institutional elements—the roles of the state, financial markets, human capital, social trust, and corporate governance—as a holistic lens, some intriguing findings of patterned Chinese outward investment are observed. Instead of a single best form of institutional environment, various combinations of institutional arrangements are equally effective, but they differ subtly before and after the BRI in attracting Chinese outward investment. Four prototypes of institutional configurations of BRI participant countries are identified, including configurations with compatible institutional settings, institutional voids, ‘idealistic’ VIS conditions, and emerging institutional elements. Corresponding propositions are proposed for future theoretical advancement.